The rally in May for Bitcoin faced selective take profit from long-term holders, but the overall trend shows a slowdown in their selling. From March 1 to May 27, the 7-day SMA of the long-term holders' spent output profit ratio (SOPR) increased from 2.10 to 2.22, indicating a slight increase in realized profits. However, the 30-day SMA decreased from around 2.51 to 2.17 during the same period, marking a decline of 13.6%.
This divergence is very important. While the 7-day SMA shows that some long-term held coins have been sold to take profit at Bitcoin's ATH of $111,700 on May 22, the 30-day average indicates that actual profits are gradually falling among long-term holders in general.
In previous cycles, the 30-day LTH SOPR upward slope indicated increasing selling pressure. Instead, the downtrend in March, April, and May shows that older coins remain mostly stagnant despite the rally.
BTC has risen by more than 26% since the beginning of March, moving from around $86,000 to an ATH of $111,700 and then dropping to around $109,000. Moves like these usually trigger stronger profit-taking activity across all groups, but the SOPR trend shows restraint from long-term holders. This restraint implies a confidence-driven holding strategy and a reduction in structural selling pressure, both of which provide support for a sustained bull run.
As of May 27, the 30-day LTH SOPR remained above 2.0, still showing a profit but much lower than its March high. If the price holds above $100,000 and the figure remains the same or is trending downwards, this will reinforce the view that long-term holders, including a large part of institutional investors, are in no hurry to exit. That will certainly create room for the price to continue to rise with limited supply coming from long-term holders.
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Long-term Bitcoin holders are not selling despite reaching a new ATH, which is maintaining the rise.
The rally in May for Bitcoin faced selective take profit from long-term holders, but the overall trend shows a slowdown in their selling. From March 1 to May 27, the 7-day SMA of the long-term holders' spent output profit ratio (SOPR) increased from 2.10 to 2.22, indicating a slight increase in realized profits. However, the 30-day SMA decreased from around 2.51 to 2.17 during the same period, marking a decline of 13.6%.
This divergence is very important. While the 7-day SMA shows that some long-term held coins have been sold to take profit at Bitcoin's ATH of $111,700 on May 22, the 30-day average indicates that actual profits are gradually falling among long-term holders in general. In previous cycles, the 30-day LTH SOPR upward slope indicated increasing selling pressure. Instead, the downtrend in March, April, and May shows that older coins remain mostly stagnant despite the rally.
BTC has risen by more than 26% since the beginning of March, moving from around $86,000 to an ATH of $111,700 and then dropping to around $109,000. Moves like these usually trigger stronger profit-taking activity across all groups, but the SOPR trend shows restraint from long-term holders. This restraint implies a confidence-driven holding strategy and a reduction in structural selling pressure, both of which provide support for a sustained bull run. As of May 27, the 30-day LTH SOPR remained above 2.0, still showing a profit but much lower than its March high. If the price holds above $100,000 and the figure remains the same or is trending downwards, this will reinforce the view that long-term holders, including a large part of institutional investors, are in no hurry to exit. That will certainly create room for the price to continue to rise with limited supply coming from long-term holders.