Over the past 15 years, the American middle class has jumped on the train of skyrocketing asset prices, and the market value of real estate and stocks has soared, creating unprecedented wealth. But this boom, fueled by low interest rates, government stimulus and global money, also has a potential bubble crisis. When structural problems such as AI, deglobalization, aging and weakening consumption momentum emerge, the so-called "white lotus generation" will also become the protagonist of the next wave of "from rich to poor".
The illusion of the white lotus generation: the inflation of consumption actually comes from asset mispricing.
The Theia team, an asset management company focused on real estate acquisitions, represented by @TraderNoah, recently delved into the analysis of the American asset bubble and changes in social structure with the article "The White Lotus Generation: A Story from Rich to Poor." It emphasizes that the "asset boom" in the United States over the past 15 years is essentially a self-reinforcing cycle of asset prices and consumption habits, which is now heading towards its end.
The term "white lotus generation" originates from the series "The White Lotus (", referring to the affluent class vacationing in luxury at tropical resort destinations. They are mostly American white-collar workers with PR scores of 90 to 99, possessing considerable real estate and stock portfolios. From 2009 to 2024, their total asset value has inflated from $8.7 trillion to $32.1 trillion, with an annual growth rate far exceeding the previous 15 years.
Changes in the proportion of various assets to net worth in the balance sheet of American households )1950-2024(
This wave of prosperity has led the white-collar class to form incorrect consumption habits and a sense of wealth:
Stock returns becoming part of salaries, excessive asset valuations further boosting corporate profits and consumer spending, forming a self-reinforcing cycle between asset prices and consumption behavior.
However, this illusion is built on loose monetary policy and a wave of passive investing, not on solid fundamentals.
From Free Money Printing to the Consumer Prisoner's Dilemma: The Counterattack Storm of Asset Bubbles
"If money can be printed infinitely and interest rates remain low, can asset prices rise forever?" This is the core question posed by the author. Over the past 15 years, the United States has elevated asset valuations with low interest rates and government stimulus, creating an illusion of a solid economic boom:
The rise in asset prices brings about paper wealth, encouraging consumption; companies incorporate stock rewards into their salary systems, further driving up demand and profits.
However, when the entire society has already "fully loaded assets," marginal buyers can only come from two forces: "economic surplus or leveraged financing." But in the era of high interest rates, leverage cannot be sustained; and economic surplus is ultimately limited by real output. When new buyers are exhausted, leverage cannot be sustained, and the fundamentals cannot keep up, this mechanism will eventually reverse:
At this moment, anyone who sells first will trigger a chain reaction. The asset has long since lost its meaning as an investment and has become a prisoner’s dilemma )Prisoner’s dilemma(.
) Note: The prisoner's dilemma is an important concept in game theory, describing a situation where individuals pursuing their own interests lead to a worse collective outcome. (
AI is coming and replacing the middle class: high-salary white-collar workers are no longer the darlings of capital.
Over the past few years, white-collar workers have benefited from generative AI tools like ChatGPT, resulting in vastly more productive gains, but this is just a transitional phase. As AI moved from "augmented tools" to "replacement tools," companies found that instead of hiring analysts who earn $150,000 a year, they could spend less than $2,000 a year importing AI models:
For businesses, this represents a short-term increase in gross profit; for society, however, it is structural unemployment among the middle-class white-collar workers and consumption contraction.
)Robinhood CEO: AI will make "one-person companies" the norm, and a wave of brand tokenization will rise (
In the short term, AI is expected to enhance corporate gross profit and stock prices, but in the medium term, a wave of unemployment and declining income will hit consumer spending power. At this time, the class with the most U.S. assets, the "white lotus class", will be the first to suffer. Once they lose cash flow and become net sellers, it may trigger a wave of market correction.
Examining the Weakness of the US Dollar: A Global Perspective on the Retreat of American Assets
Time focused on earlier this year, Noah personally observed in the Condesa district of Mexico City: "Americans enjoy the food and cost of living arbitrage here, with a large number of Silicon Valley engineers relocating overseas for high salaries."
This is a countercurrent of labor globalization that is currently underway, where Americans flee high prices but continue to sustain their lives with high assets.
This situation stems from the global overvaluation of the US dollar and the enthusiasm for American assets. However, when global capital begins to question the US deficit and political uncertainty as the dollar depreciates, such as with Trump's return, foreign buyers who were accustomed to purchasing American assets will exit, leading to a risk of a chain collapse.
) The exit of the dollar hegemony is a necessary part of the transformation of the American financial system: How should investors respond to the "post-dollar era"? (
The end arrives early: when the cycle of asset prosperity is bound to reverse
Noah also predicts that in the next 15 years, the ratio of household assets to income in the United States will fall from 800% to below 600%; the wage premium for white-collar workers will also converge significantly:
When asset prices stop rising and purchasing power declines, the government's money printing can no longer save the quality of life for the middle class, only causing currency dilution and capital transfer.
)Is the Federal Reserve powerless? Ray Dalio reveals the risks behind the downgrade of US debt ratings: "Inflation" is the real default(
He emphasized that the real risk is not the financial crisis itself, but rather the psychological turning point: when the market and consumers generally realize that "this is not a temporary adjustment, but a structural recession," it marks the beginning of the bubble's ultimate collapse. And such a turning point may come faster than one might think.
This article "The Prosperity and Disillusionment of the "White Lotus" Generation: When Will the Middle-Class Crisis in America Under Asset Bubbles Arrive?" first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
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The Prosperity and Disillusionment of the "White Lotus" Generation: When Will the American Middle-Class Crisis Under the Asset Bubble Arrive?
Over the past 15 years, the American middle class has jumped on the train of skyrocketing asset prices, and the market value of real estate and stocks has soared, creating unprecedented wealth. But this boom, fueled by low interest rates, government stimulus and global money, also has a potential bubble crisis. When structural problems such as AI, deglobalization, aging and weakening consumption momentum emerge, the so-called "white lotus generation" will also become the protagonist of the next wave of "from rich to poor".
The illusion of the white lotus generation: the inflation of consumption actually comes from asset mispricing.
The Theia team, an asset management company focused on real estate acquisitions, represented by @TraderNoah, recently delved into the analysis of the American asset bubble and changes in social structure with the article "The White Lotus Generation: A Story from Rich to Poor." It emphasizes that the "asset boom" in the United States over the past 15 years is essentially a self-reinforcing cycle of asset prices and consumption habits, which is now heading towards its end.
The term "white lotus generation" originates from the series "The White Lotus (", referring to the affluent class vacationing in luxury at tropical resort destinations. They are mostly American white-collar workers with PR scores of 90 to 99, possessing considerable real estate and stock portfolios. From 2009 to 2024, their total asset value has inflated from $8.7 trillion to $32.1 trillion, with an annual growth rate far exceeding the previous 15 years.
Changes in the proportion of various assets to net worth in the balance sheet of American households )1950-2024(
This wave of prosperity has led the white-collar class to form incorrect consumption habits and a sense of wealth:
Stock returns becoming part of salaries, excessive asset valuations further boosting corporate profits and consumer spending, forming a self-reinforcing cycle between asset prices and consumption behavior.
However, this illusion is built on loose monetary policy and a wave of passive investing, not on solid fundamentals.
From Free Money Printing to the Consumer Prisoner's Dilemma: The Counterattack Storm of Asset Bubbles
"If money can be printed infinitely and interest rates remain low, can asset prices rise forever?" This is the core question posed by the author. Over the past 15 years, the United States has elevated asset valuations with low interest rates and government stimulus, creating an illusion of a solid economic boom:
The rise in asset prices brings about paper wealth, encouraging consumption; companies incorporate stock rewards into their salary systems, further driving up demand and profits.
However, when the entire society has already "fully loaded assets," marginal buyers can only come from two forces: "economic surplus or leveraged financing." But in the era of high interest rates, leverage cannot be sustained; and economic surplus is ultimately limited by real output. When new buyers are exhausted, leverage cannot be sustained, and the fundamentals cannot keep up, this mechanism will eventually reverse:
At this moment, anyone who sells first will trigger a chain reaction. The asset has long since lost its meaning as an investment and has become a prisoner’s dilemma )Prisoner’s dilemma(.
) Note: The prisoner's dilemma is an important concept in game theory, describing a situation where individuals pursuing their own interests lead to a worse collective outcome. (
AI is coming and replacing the middle class: high-salary white-collar workers are no longer the darlings of capital.
Over the past few years, white-collar workers have benefited from generative AI tools like ChatGPT, resulting in vastly more productive gains, but this is just a transitional phase. As AI moved from "augmented tools" to "replacement tools," companies found that instead of hiring analysts who earn $150,000 a year, they could spend less than $2,000 a year importing AI models:
For businesses, this represents a short-term increase in gross profit; for society, however, it is structural unemployment among the middle-class white-collar workers and consumption contraction.
)Robinhood CEO: AI will make "one-person companies" the norm, and a wave of brand tokenization will rise (
In the short term, AI is expected to enhance corporate gross profit and stock prices, but in the medium term, a wave of unemployment and declining income will hit consumer spending power. At this time, the class with the most U.S. assets, the "white lotus class", will be the first to suffer. Once they lose cash flow and become net sellers, it may trigger a wave of market correction.
Examining the Weakness of the US Dollar: A Global Perspective on the Retreat of American Assets
Time focused on earlier this year, Noah personally observed in the Condesa district of Mexico City: "Americans enjoy the food and cost of living arbitrage here, with a large number of Silicon Valley engineers relocating overseas for high salaries."
This is a countercurrent of labor globalization that is currently underway, where Americans flee high prices but continue to sustain their lives with high assets.
This situation stems from the global overvaluation of the US dollar and the enthusiasm for American assets. However, when global capital begins to question the US deficit and political uncertainty as the dollar depreciates, such as with Trump's return, foreign buyers who were accustomed to purchasing American assets will exit, leading to a risk of a chain collapse.
) The exit of the dollar hegemony is a necessary part of the transformation of the American financial system: How should investors respond to the "post-dollar era"? (
The end arrives early: when the cycle of asset prosperity is bound to reverse
Noah also predicts that in the next 15 years, the ratio of household assets to income in the United States will fall from 800% to below 600%; the wage premium for white-collar workers will also converge significantly:
When asset prices stop rising and purchasing power declines, the government's money printing can no longer save the quality of life for the middle class, only causing currency dilution and capital transfer.
)Is the Federal Reserve powerless? Ray Dalio reveals the risks behind the downgrade of US debt ratings: "Inflation" is the real default(
He emphasized that the real risk is not the financial crisis itself, but rather the psychological turning point: when the market and consumers generally realize that "this is not a temporary adjustment, but a structural recession," it marks the beginning of the bubble's ultimate collapse. And such a turning point may come faster than one might think.
This article "The Prosperity and Disillusionment of the "White Lotus" Generation: When Will the Middle-Class Crisis in America Under Asset Bubbles Arrive?" first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.