alt season or altcoin G? Let's take a look at what the big names think about the market outlook.

Original｜Odaily Daily Report (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser（@wenser2010）

With the frequent news of market policies, the crypto market has finally gradually recovered, and altcoins have also ushered in their own "second spring", especially meme coins: OKX market shows that MOODENG, GOAT, WIF, BOME, and MEW have risen as high as 123.09, 57.36%, 26.24%, 24.84%, and 22.64% respectively in 24 hours. This wave of rise with BTC, ETH, SOL has made many diamond hands chant "back, all back"; On the other hand, he watched his position drop a lot and dripped blood in his heart. Regarding the market outlook, Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the recent market growth drivers and representative views of the industry in this article for readers' reference.

Macro direct benefits: US and China shake hands and reconcile, the Federal Reserve releases rate cut expectations.

In recent days, the surge in the market has undoubtedly been directly induced by the tariff and trade negotiations between China and the United States. Moreover, thanks to a series of previous maneuvers by Trump, in the face of the potential for economic recession, the Federal Reserve is no longer maintaining its usual tough stance. With a shift in tone, the expectations for interest rate cuts this year have suddenly increased, and the favorable policies have led the market to turn bullish, with buying pressure quickly surpassing selling pressure.

Both China and the US have "made substantial progress"

This morning, Beijing time, the White House issued a document announcing that the United States announced a trade deal with China in Geneva. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson said the talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, over two days and had made "substantial progress." The two sides were satisfied with the outcome of the negotiations, believing that the differences were not as big as they had imagined, and that the agreement was reached quickly. U.S. officials are optimistic that a deal will help address the trade deficit. He Lifeng, the Chinese leader of China-US economic and trade and vice premier of the State Council, also said at the press conference that the high-level economic and trade talks between China and the United States were candid, in-depth and constructive, reached important consensus, and made substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a mechanism for economic and trade consultations between China and the United States.

After experiencing the previous farce of "154% high tariffs", China and the United States have finally sat down again to negotiate calmly and reached a phased consensus, which undoubtedly serves as a reassurance for both countries' economies and the cryptocurrency market.

The Federal Reserve's stance has softened, and interest rate cuts are expected this year

On May 8, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that in some cases, it would be appropriate to cut rates this year, while in other cases, it would not be appropriate. I cannot confidently say that I know the right path for interest rates. At that time, based on futures prices, the likelihood of a rate cut by July was about 75%.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Governor Cook previously stated that both inflation and the unemployment rate pose upward risks, and the economy may experience a slowdown in the short term; on the other hand, "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos analyzed that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell downplayed expectations that interest rate cuts could alleviate the economic weakness potentially caused by Trump's tariffs, the latter suggesting that the Federal Reserve would only consider cutting interest rates after seeing significant evidence of an economic slowdown, and it could be a rapid rate cut.

Overall, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the second half of this year has increased significantly, further repairing the previously oversold market sentiment.

Institutions continue to buy BTC: listed companies become the main force in hoarding coins, BlackRock leads the way.

As the most prominent BTC buying group in this cycle, listed companies have become one of the fastest-growing groups in terms of the amount of cryptocurrency held in the market; asset management institutions and ETF index funds are also in a phase of rapid growth.

Metaplanet added 1241 BTC today, worth approximately 182 million USD

The Japanese listed company Metaplanet has increased its holdings by 1,241 BTC, worth approximately $182 million. As of now, the company holds a total of 6,796 BTC, valued at around $704 million.

Strategy Continuous buying, annual return has exceeded 14%

Strategy founder Michael Saylor released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker again last night. According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings on the second day after relevant news is published.

On May 5, it was reported that Strategy purchased 1,895 Bitcoin at a price of $95,167 between April 28 and May 4 (totaling $180.3 million). At the same time, it stated that as of May 2025, the Bitcoin return had reached 14.0%. As of May 4, 2025, it held 555,450 BTC with an average cost of $68,550, totaling a value of $38.08 billion.

Indian listed company Jetking enters BTC, aiming to hold 18,000 coins by 2030

Harsh Bharwani, CEO of the Indian listed company Jetking, previously stated that the company plans to gradually increase its holdings of BTC through various financing tools, aiming to reach a total holding of 18,000 coins by 2030. He revealed that within the next six months, they will raise funds to expand to approximately 180 BTC, with a goal of reaching 1,800 BTC within the following year, and to complete the final holding plan before 2030.

BlackRock recently increased its holdings by 5,613 BTC, bringing the total Bitcoin holdings to over 620,000 coins

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, on May 6th, BlackRock increased its holdings by 5,613 BTC, valued at $529.5 million. Currently, the total Bitcoin holdings have surpassed 620,000, reaching 620,252 BTC, worth $58.51 billion. Since April 21st, BlackRock has purchased a total of 47,064 BTC.

On May 7, it was reported that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) still ranks sixth in the U.S. ETF fund list with a net inflow of $6.96 billion, surpassing the world's largest gold ETF (GLD) with $6.5 billion.

New addition: Futu opens deposit functions for BTC, ETH, and USDT, traditional financial applications integrate into the cryptocurrency system

In addition to the aforementioned common topic of buying power, the most notable new variable in the crypto market recently is undoubtedly the matter of "Futu APP, as a traditional financial application, opening deposit functions for BTC, ETH, and USDT."

Futu launches BTC, ETH, USDT deposit feature

Last week, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited announced the official launch of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) deposit services. Qualified investors can complete deposits and trade cryptocurrencies (“Crypto”) through the one-stop trading platform Futu NiuNiu to acquire funds, allowing them to invest in more asset classes or safely withdraw. Investors can manage Crypto+TradFi assets (traditional financial assets, including Hong Kong, US, and Japanese stocks, options, ETFs, funds, bonds, and other diversified assets) through a single app, enabling quick conversions between virtual and traditional asset markets.

Is it a copycat season or a copycat G? There is a significant market divergence, and it is still in the stage of oversold recovery.

With BTC, ETH, SOL experiencing a slight choppy decline after a recent sharp rally, the crypto market's enthusiasm for the copycat season has been rekindled. As for whether the altcoin is about to enter the copycat season, the views of industry representatives are quite divided, and some people believe that altcoins will also attract the overflow liquidity of mainstream currencies such as BTC and ETH as in the past, and then usher in a rise; However, some analysts believe that altcoins have fallen by 80% to 90% from their highs in January this year and before, and that their performance in recent days has only been a "dead cat" rally.

Bullish camp: Trader Eugene expects a strong rebound in altcoins

Last Saturday, trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted that although he correctly judged the upward direction this time, he suffered poor actual returns due to being stopped out by the volatility. Looking ahead, this rise to $100,000 confirmed the previous $90,000 support reversal, and the market is now likely to challenge historical highs again. This was not originally anticipated, but it seems that funds from MicroStrategy and ETFs are flowing in continuously.

In contrast, until yesterday, most of the veteran players in the cryptocurrency space were still observing (or even shorting). With the expectations of new historical highs reigniting enthusiasm in the market, a strong rebound in the total market capitalization of altcoins is expected.

Bullish side: Analysts say the mainstream crowd in the market is short-term traders, the altcoin season has arrived

Analyst 2 Lambroz believes that the peak season for altcoins may have arrived, but he said that the market dynamics have changed. "People want to buy, but lack confidence in any strong narrative." He noted that, unlike in 2021, there are currently no signs of retail investors entering the market. Traders have a faster turnover of money and little incentive to hold long-term positions. Technical trader Moustache's view is more optimistic. He shared a chart showing that altcoins repeatedly go through the accumulation phase and then usher in explosive growth. According to its analysis, the current structure is similar to what it was in 2016 and 2020. "The 2025 altcoin season has officially begun".

Neutral Faction: CryptoQuant founder admits previous judgment was incorrect and emphasizes the importance of focusing on institutional incremental funds

Ki Young Ju, the founder of CryptoQuant, stated that his judgment about the end of the BTC bull market two months ago was incorrect. Current on-chain data shows that BTC selling pressure is easing, while large-scale inflows of institutional funds such as ETFs are driving changes in market structure. He pointed out that in the past, the Bitcoin market was primarily composed of established whales, miners, and retail investors, making it easier to judge cycle tops; however, now with the participation of ETFs, MicroStrategy, institutions, and government entities, the traditional logic of "whales selling causing tops" is becoming ineffective. Ki emphasized that in the new environment, more attention should be paid to the inflow of incremental institutional funds rather than old selling pressure signals.

Bearish camp: Altcoins down 90%, golden age is still far away

Meanwhile, skeptics still exist. Commentator Rekt Fencer pointed out that most altcoins have dropped by 90% since last December. This week's 10% slight rebound has sparked excessive optimism, prompting him to mock this rebound. "This is the altcoin golden age we have been waiting for."

Summary: A slight rebound in Meme coins does not mean the altcoin season has arrived.

According to Coingecko data, BTC's market share is still around 60%. Overall, it's still hard to say that we have entered an altcoin season; rather, the previous term "altcoin G" is more fitting. The coins that are currently performing well are mostly showing a "local bull market".

As Arthur Hayes stated in early May, "The question I get asked the most lately is, when is the altcoin season coming? And the answer is sometimes it is right in front of you. HYPE."