The activation of ancient Bitcoin addresses triggers market Fluctuation

Recently, an intriguing phenomenon has emerged in the market: 8 dormant Bitcoin addresses that had been inactive for 14 years have suddenly been activated, holding a total of 80,000 Bitcoins. Analysis suggests that these addresses may belong to an independent miner from 2011, who had accumulated mining rewards from 180 blocks and once held 200,000 Bitcoins, making him the fifth largest whale in Bitcoin history.

The main reason this event has raised market concerns is that the holding cost of these Bitcoins is only $1.76 per coin. Based on the current price of about $108,000, their unrealized gains reach as high as 61,000 times. If these Bitcoins are sold, it would cause a huge impact on the market. It is worth mentioning that in 2024, a certain country's government selling nearly 50,000 Bitcoins triggered months of market turbulence, with a maximum drop of 32%. If this whale chooses to cash out, the potential selling pressure of 80,000 Bitcoins may lead to more intense market fluctuations.

There are various speculations in the market regarding the reasons for the sudden awakening of these "sleeping" Bitcoins. Some say it might be due to a prisoner being released early and regaining control of their assets; others speculate that ancient miners accidentally found the hard drive containing their private keys; and there is also a viewpoint that suggests this could be some large funds testing the market reaction in preparation for future operations.

From the current situation, the likelihood of the third statement is greater. There are mainly two reasons: First, this batch of Bitcoin has not undergone further operations after being transferred to a new Address, which aligns with the routine security management behavior of large holders; secondly, after the news broke, the market price of Bitcoin only fell slightly by 1.09%, indicating that major funds did not experience a large-scale withdrawal. These two signs suggest that the possibility of a large-scale sell-off in the short term is low, and the market leaders do not regard this event as an uncontrollable factor.

Meanwhile, a series of recent policy moves by the U.S. government are also worth noting. On July 4, the U.S. government officially signed a new bill, marking the implementation of a large-scale tax cut and fiscal spending plan. This bill is expected to result in an increase in the federal budget deficit of up to $5 trillion, significantly expanding its scale. Although it may increase the national debt burden in the long term, these measures are expected to boost household income, stimulate consumption, and invigorate the stock market in the short term.

In addition to fiscal expansion, adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) of the banking system may also bring positive effects. The Federal Reserve is considering lowering the SLR requirement for large banks from 5% to 3.5%, and may exclude some low-risk assets from the leverage ratio calculation. This adjustment is expected to free up about $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and help lower long-term yields on U.S. Treasuries.

The current macro policy mix in the United States is clear: new debt will be jointly undertaken by the banking system and the new stablecoin legislation, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy provides the necessary liquidity support. This policy loop is expected to operate smoothly in the short term and is likely to continue supporting the strength of risk assets such as the US stock market and Bitcoin.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in an upward trend, and short-term market fluctuations have only caused intraday level shocks. With strong market consensus support, the possibility of a deep adjustment in Bitcoin is low. It is expected that after a brief consolidation, the price will continue to rise, with a long-term target price between 127600 and 137500.