Bitcoin Breaks $110,000: Asymmetrical Opportunity for Value Investors

The price of Bitcoin has surpassed the $110,000 mark, igniting market enthusiasm. However, for investors who missed the entry opportunity, this moment feels more like an inner interrogation: Am I too late? Will there be opportunities in the future?

This raises a core question: in an asset as extremely volatile as Bitcoin, is there a perspective of "value investing"? Can this seemingly contradictory strategy capture "asymmetrical" opportunities amid the turmoil?

Bitcoin's Asymmetric Opportunities

Looking back at history, Bitcoin has experienced several crashes of 80% or even 90% from its peak. During these times, the market was shrouded in panic, and the price seemed to return to the starting point. However, for investors who deeply understand the long-term logic of Bitcoin, this is precisely a classic "asymmetric" opportunity—taking on limited loss risk in exchange for potential huge returns.

Source of asymmetrical opportunities in Bitcoin:

1. Deep cycle + extreme emotions lead to price deviation
2. Extreme price volatility, but the probability of death is extremely low.
3. Intrinsic value exists but is overlooked, leading to an "oversold" state.

Bitcoin, although it has no cash flow, board of directors, or factories, it possesses:

• Algorithm scarcity ( hard cap of 10 million coins )
• The world's most powerful proof-of-work network protection
• Strong network effect ( over 50 million non-zero balance addresses )
• Recognized by mainstream institutions and sovereign nations

Bitcoin Value Investment Framework

Supply Side: Scarcity and Deflationary Model

The core value proposition of Bitcoin lies in its verifiable scarcity:

• Fixed total supply of 21 million coins
• Halved every four years, the inflation rate continues to decline
• Stock-Flow ( S2F ) ratio continues to rise

Demand Side: Network Effects and User Growth

• Over 50 million non-zero balance addresses
• The daily active addresses have risen to 910,000.
• The capacity of the Lightning Network continues to rise.

Combining both supply and demand sides, we can construct a valuation framework for Bitcoin:

When the S2F signal indicates long-term scarcity, and the number of active users continues to rise, the mismatch between demand and supply amplifies the asymmetry.

The Essence of Value Investing

The core of value investing is to find a structure with limited risk but significant potential returns in the gap between price and value. It constructs a natural asymmetric structure: the worst outcome is a controllable loss, while the best case may exceed expectations by several times.

Value investing emphasizes:

• Cognitive Ability
• Emotional Discipline
• Risk Awareness
• Belief in time

The volatility of Bitcoin is not an enemy, but a gift. Its panic is not a risk, but an opportunity for market mispricing.

True value investors do not shout during a bull market. They quietly lay out their plans in the calm beneath the storm.

Summary

Bitcoin may be the purest expression of asymmetry in our time:

• Scarcity is the bottom line
• The network is the ceiling
• Volatility is an opportunity
• Time is leverage

You may not be able to perfectly time the bottom. But you can go through cycles again and again, buying misunderstood value at reasonable prices.

Those who bet in the depths of irrationality are often the most rational. And time is the most loyal executor of asymmetry.