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The current economic indicators present a perplexing picture. The stock market, real estate, Crypto Assets, and precious metal prices have all reached historical highs, while the Money Supply and national debt levels are also at elevated levels. Since 2020, the inflation rate has remained around 4%, which is double the Fed's ideal target.
However, against the backdrop of an economic system that seems to have overheated, the Fed has sent signals that it may cut interest rates next month. This decision inevitably evokes the image of a pilot increasing thrust when encountering strong turbulence. In the short term, the market may interpret this as a new round of liquidity stimulus, but in the long run, it will undoubtedly exacerbate the overheating risks of the entire economic system.
Historical experience shows that implementing an expansionary monetary policy at the peak of the price cycle often lays the groundwork for future economic crises. The current situation is a typical example of such potential risks.
Looking back at the impact of interest rate cuts during past economic peaks, they have not only had a significant effect on the Crypto Assets market but also caused profound impacts on traditional financial markets. Understanding these historical cases will help us predict the potential consequences of the upcoming changes in liquidity.
In this uncertain economic environment, investors need to remain vigilant and closely monitor policy trends and market responses. Will the Fed's move repeat past mistakes, triggering a new round of economic turmoil, or can it navigate through this seemingly contradictory decision smoothly? This question is worth our contemplation.