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Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown signs of a short-term bearish counterattack. From a Technical Analysis perspective, Bitcoin's momentum has weakened on the 1-hour and 4-hour time frames, while it is hovering between moving averages on the daily chart. This situation requires investors to closely follow the price pullback to assess the potential shift in bullish and bearish trends.
From the daily chart, Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase, with a relatively balanced bull and bear strength. The price is above the 21-day exponential moving average but is under pressure from the 9-day moving average. The relative strength index (RSI) is about 51, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) growth rate is slowing down. Investors can wait for the price to break through a clear direction before making decisions.
The 4-hour chart shows a slight short-term bearish trend advantage. The price has broken below the 9-day and 21-day exponential moving averages, the MACD histogram has turned negative, the RSI is below 50, the directional momentum indicator ( DMI ) has formed a death cross, and the average directional index ( ADX ) is greater than 20. These signs indicate that a bearish pullback may occur in the short term.
The 1-hour chart also shows a slight bearish trend. The price has fallen below the 200-day exponential moving average and the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), the RSI is below 50, and the MACD is still operating below the 0 axis.
Based on the current market situation, the investment strategy recommendations are as follows:
1. Contract traders can consider positioning short orders during short-term pullbacks, focusing on the continuation of bearish trends on the 4-hour and 1-hour charts.
2. If the daily chart closing price can re-stand above the 9-day exponential moving average (around 118,260), and accompanied by a strengthening MACD indicator, then a bullish strategy can be considered.
3. In terms of risk management, it is recommended to use the 200-day exponential moving average and previous low points as boundaries, with single trade risk not exceeding 1%.
It is important to remind investors that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment decisions need to take multiple factors into account, rather than relying solely on a single technical indicator. At the same time, always remain rational, manage risk effectively, and avoid excessive chasing of highs and cutting of lows.