#美联储7月会议纪要# **The core content of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes is as follows**:

### **1. Interest Rate Decisions and Voting Discrepancies**
- **Maintain Interest Rates**: The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds target rate range unchanged at **4.25%-4.50%**, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts, in line with market expectations.
- **Internal divisions intensify**: Two board members (Waller and Bowman) advocated for an immediate rate cut of 25 basis points and cast dissenting votes, marking the **first time since 1993 that two board members opposed a rate decision**, reflecting significant divergence in policy direction.

### **2. Inflation and Employment Risk Assessment**
- **Inflation Risk Priority**: Most decision-makers believe that **the risk of inflation rising is higher than the risk of employment declining**, worried that tariff policies will push up prices, and point out that inflation expectations may be unstable.
- **Concerns about the Job Market**: Some officials mentioned that the tightening financial environment, the deterioration of the real estate market, and the widespread application of AI may lower employment rates, but overall, the labor market is still considered to remain robust.

### **3. Economic Outlook and Uncertainty**
- **Downgrade of Growth Expectations**: The Federal Reserve described the economic growth as having shifted from "sustained moderate expansion" to "somewhat slowing down," and removed the statement of "decreased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook," indicating increased concerns about future growth.
- **Discrepancies in Tariff Impact**: Most believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will take time to fully manifest, potentially being a one-time or persistent pressure that needs further assessment.

### **4. Attention to Financial Market Vulnerabilities**
- **Risks in the U.S. Treasury Market**: Officials are generally concerned about the vulnerability of the U.S. Treasury market, with some mentioning potential issues in the banking and foreign exchange swap areas.
- **Impact of Digital Assets**: Discussed the implications of the stablecoin legislation on the financial system and the implementation of monetary policy, emphasizing the need for close attention.

### **5. Policy Outlook and Conditions for Interest Rate Cuts**
- **High uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts in September**: Whether to restart interest rate cuts depends on two factors:
1. Has the U.S. economy (especially private demand) slowed more than expected and transmitted to the labor market?
2. Has the impact of tariffs on inflation evolved from a one-time effect to a persistent pressure?
- **The window for interest rate cuts remains this year**: If economic or inflation risks significantly worsen, the Federal Reserve may still take action.

### **6. Key Data and Background**
- **Inflation Target**: The overall inflation rate in the U.S. is still slightly above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of **2%**.
- **Economic Data**: The GDP growth rate in the second quarter was better than expected, but a slowdown in consumer spending has led to a deceleration in growth.
- **Voting Background**: Waller and Bowman are rumored to be popular candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, with their interest rate cut proposals potentially influenced by the Trump administration's tariff policies.