#FOMC July Minutes#

From August 18 to 23, Bitcoin traded in a consolidation mode with a series of mixed movements. All attention was focused on macroeconomic data and expectations surrounding the meeting of the Federal Reserve System of the USA (FRS). It was as if the active and constant demand from exchange-traded funds (ETF) had become so customary for the sector that investors stopped taking it seriously.
At the beginning of the week, BTC was hovering around $114,000 and remained under pressure after profit-taking and strong producer inflation data from the U.S. Support was seen in the $112,000–$113,000 range, with resistance at $116,000–$117,000. On Wednesday–Thursday, the flagship cryptocurrency tested the lower boundary of the range again and fell to $113,000. Weak activity in the spot market and caution in the derivatives market signaled restrained sentiment among participants.
On Friday, August 22, all market attention was focused on the symposium in Jackson Hole, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke. His comments had a "dovish" tone: the regulator indicated that a rate cut in September remains in focus, even despite strong producer inflation data. This became a key signal for market participants and triggered a wave of buying in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin bounced from levels around $112,000 in the first minutes after the speech and soared above $116,000. The day's highs were between $116,500 and $117,200, where the asset recorded a growth of about 4%. The movement was accompanied by a sharp increase in open interest in the futures market: around $300 million was injected into futures in just a few minutes, highlighting institutional demand.
However, the momentum turned out to be short-lived. By the end of the trading session, BTC stabilized near $115,000, where a consolidation zone re-emerged. Futures premiums on CME narrowed to 5.5% annually, and options showed an increase in demand for downside protection. All of this translates into plain language as "caution" — the market did not believe in the sharp movement.
In the end, Friday confirmed: macroeconomic signals are critically important for bitcoin. The market is ready to respond with a rapid increase to soft comments from the Fed, but it has not yet managed to establish itself above $117,000.
Institutional demand has still remained at a decent level. The Dutch company Amdax announced the creation of a Bitcoin Treasury Company and plans to list on Euronext with the aim of holding at least 1% of the free supply of BTC. This reflects the growing interest in global exposure to BTC, which is considered a very positive signal.
The technical picture looks moderate. There is no room yet for a return to the unrestrained optimism we observed just a week ago. But pessimists also have nothing particularly to lean on here. According to GIS Mining estimates, the key levels for the upcoming sessions look like this: support in the range of $112,000–$113,000 and resistance in the range of $116,500–$117,200. Their breakout will determine the further direction of BTC.