Analysis of the recent weakening of Bitcoin: In 2011, OG whales swapped to ETH, causing market fluctuations.

Last night around 7 PM, a key market dynamic surfaced, which may provide core clues to the recent weakness in Bitcoin. According to market data and analyst Willy Woo's viewpoint, Bitcoin experienced a rapid drop of 2.2% within 9 minutes, with the price falling to $112,174 and a market value evaporating by $45 billion.
1. Source of Core Selling Power
• The main selling pressure comes from OGs (early holders) who bought Bitcoin at a low price of $10 in 2011, and the selling of such low-cost holdings puts significant pressure on the market.
• For every 1 Bitcoin sold by this group, the market needs to inject $110,000 in new funds to absorb it, which puts significant pressure on liquidity.
• One whale sold 18,142 Bitcoins (worth approximately $2 billion) in a single transaction and converted the funds into 416,598 ETH, with some ETH already staked.
2. Whale Operation Trajectory and Market Chain Reaction
• Going back to August 16, this giant whale has begun to take action: transferring 24,000 Bitcoins (approximately $2.7 billion) to the Hyperliquid platform and massively increasing its holdings of ETH.
• Its ETH holdings peaked at 551,861 coins (approximately $2.6 billion), achieving a profit of $185 million through the ETH/BTC trading pair.
• When the giant whale closed its long ETH position, the market sentiment reversed, triggering a Bitcoin sell-off, and the price subsequently declined.
3. Potential Variables in the Subsequent Market
• The cold wallet of the aforementioned whale still holds 152,874 Bitcoins, and its subsequent movements need to be monitored.
• Another major player has joined the "abandon BTC for ETH" camp, selling 670 Bitcoins (approximately $76 million) to go long on ETH.
• In terms of capital flow, ETH has accumulated a 220% increase since April, continuously attracting funds that initially flowed into Bit, forming a pattern of "ETH attracting capital, BTC under pressure."
4. Market Cognition and Expectation Reflection
For a long time, the market has generally categorized Bitcoin cold wallets that have held positions for over 5 years as "lost private keys", with price expectations based on an actual circulation of about 7.1 million coins, excluding these old wallets from liquidity considerations. However, recent dynamics show that a large number of cold wallets holding positions for over 10 years are still active, indicating that previous estimates of circulation may be inaccurate.
The core issue in the current market is that both retail and institutional investors are not prepared for the "early collective recovery of the whales." However, it is fortunate that these whales have not completely exited the market; rather, they are adjusting their positions by swapping into ETH or partially reducing their holdings, instead of directly cashing out. If the whales densely recover in the future and choose to "cash out without swapping," not only will retail investors face greater pressure, but the entire price expectation system of the Bitcoin market may undergo reconstruction. #ETH创历史新高# #Gate Alpha空投FST# #鲍威尔鸽派发言#